Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Predicted 12.5 performances

Hooray for HQ!  As many have figured out, 12.5 is the exact same workout as 11.6 last year, which cleverly allows people to judge their improvement from one year to the next.  What's super nice, is that it also allows us to ask questions that would be difficult to answer.  For example, is the field of crossfit open participants getting better as a whole?  Without the constant variable that 12.5 provides, this question could only be answered with vast amounts of speculation.  Answering it now, will just require a comparison of raw scores from one year to the next.

For people interested in last year's performance scores for 11.6 (the same as 12.5), here are the cumulative plots for the participants that finished all 6 workouts, in the main male and female categories.  It looks like the 50th percentile for men is slightly below 90 reps, while for women it's about 73 reps.  For those headed to regionals and aiming for the 95th percentile, aim for 125 reps and 110 reps for males and females, respectively.  Of course, it all depends on your given situation and your standings now.

The final data for workout 11.6, which is the same WOD as this year's 12.5.  My speculation is that the curves won't change too much from last year's to this year's, although I've been wrong before, plenty of times.

Also note, for men, if you're on the cusp of regionals, have a BMI of around 26-27 and a height of 5'10" and below, you should rock this thing.  This workout heavily favors the shorter and huskier as seen here in the below figure, plotting the average score for each height weight combination.  Details of how to interpret the figure can found in this previous link.

Predicted relationship between height/weight and WOD 12.5 performance.   If you have a BMI above 30, you may be in trouble (blue areas).  

1 comment:

  1. At first I was a little disappointed that the last workout was the same. Then a little light bulb went off when I thought of all the great comparisons that could be made. Thanks for crunching the numbers.